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Match In Focus - System Plays

System Plays for Friday, 2 February 2024

Matches:

Heidenheim - Dortmund
Germany, Bundesliga @ 20:30 CET

Lecce - Fiorentina
Italy, Serie A @ 20:45 CET

Bristol City - Leeds
England, Championship @ 21:00 CET

System Plays:

(0.6 Units) Heidenheim +0.75 (1.85)
(0.6 Units) Lecce +0.5 (1.77)
(0.6 Units) Bristol City +0.75 (1.89)
 
Everygame
Results and balance for the last 2 days

Thursday

Fixed Stakes:

KV Mechelen +0.5 (1.71): 2:2 / Won 2.13 Units
St. Truiden +0.5 (1.78): 4:1 / Won 2.34 Units
Luzern -0.25 (1.84): 3:0 / Won 2.52 Units

Day Balance:
Won 3 / Won 6.99 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(0.6) KV Mechelen +0.5 (1.71): 2:2 / Won 0.426 Units
(0.6) St. Truiden +0.5 (1.78): 4:1 / Won 0.468 Units
(1.1) Luzern -0.25 (1.84): 3:0 / Won 0.924 Units

Day Balance:
Won 3 / Won 1.818 Units

Friday

Fixed Stakes:

Heidenheim +0.75 (1.85): 0:0 / Won 2.55 Units
Lecce +0.5 (1.77): 3:2 / Won 2.31 Units
Bristol City +0.75 (1.89): 0:1 / Lost 1.5 Units (Half Stake)

Day Balance:
Won 2 - Lost 1 (0.5) / Won 3.36 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(0.6) Heidenheim +0.75 (1.85): 0:0 / Won 0.51 Units
(0.6) Lecce +0.5 (1.77): 3:2 / Won 0.462 Units
(0.6) Bristol City +0.75 (1.89): 0:1 / Lost 0.3 Units (Half Stake)

Day Balance:
Won 2 - Lost 1 (0.5) / Won 0.672 Units

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

OVERALL BALANCE:

Fixed Stakes:
Won 26 - Lost 16 (13.5) / Won 22.59 Units

Variable Stakes:
Won 26 - Lost 16 (13.5) / Won 10.60 Units
 
System Plays for Saturday, 3 February 2024

Matches:

Sheffield Utd - Aston Villa
England, Premier League @ 18:30 CET

Alaves - Barcelona
Spain, LaLiga @ 18:30 CET

Girona - Real Sociedad
Spain, LaLiga @ 21:00 CET

System Plays:

(1.3 Units) Sheffield Utd +1 (1.71)
(0.6 Units) Alaves +0.75 (1.70)
(0.6 Units) Girona -0.25 (1.78)
 

System Plays for Sunday, 4 February 2024

Matches:

Bournemouth - Nottingham
England, Premier League @ 15:00

Inter - Juventus
Italy, Serie A @ 20:45 CET

Real Madrid - Atletico Madrid
Spain, LaLiga @ 21:00 CET

System Plays:

(2.3 Units) Bournemouth to Win (1.70)
(1.1 Units) Inter to Win (1.85)
(1.3 Units) Atletico Madrid +1 (1.72)
 
Results and balance for the last 2 days

Saturday

Fixed Stakes:

Sheffield Utd +1 (1.71): 0:5 / Lost 3 Units
Alaves +0.75 (1.70): 1:3 / Lost 3 Units
Girona -0.25 (1.78): 0:0 / Lost 1.5 Units (Half Stake)

Day Balance:
Lost 3 (2.5) / Lost 7.5 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(1.3) Sheffield Utd +1 (1.71): 0:5 / Lost 1.3 Units
(0.6) Alaves +0.75 (1.70): 1:3 / Lost 0.6 Units
(0.6) Girona -0.25 (1.78): 0:0 / Lost 0.3 Units (Half Stake)

Day Balance:
Lost 3 (2.5) / Lost 2.2 Units

Sunday

Fixed Stakes:

Bournemouth to Win (1.70): 1:1 / Lost 3 Units
Inter to Win (1.85): 1:0 / Won 2.55 Units
Atletico Madrid +1 (1.72): 1:1 / Won 2.16 Units

Day Balance:
Won 2 - Lost 1 / Won 1.71 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(2.3) Bournemouth to Win (1.70): 1:1 / Lost 2.3 Units
(1.1) Inter to Win (1.85): 1:0 / Won 0.935 Units
(1.3) Atletico Madrid +1 (1.72): 1:1 / Won 0.936 Units

Day Balance:
Won 2 - Lost 1 / Lost 0.429 Units

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

OVERALL BALANCE:

Fixed Stakes:
Won 28 - Lost 20 (17) / Won 16.80 Units

Variable Stakes:
Won 28 - Lost 20 (17) / Won 7.971 Units
 
System Plays for Monday, 5 February 2024

Matches:

APOEL - AEK Larnaca
Cyprus, Cyta Championship @ 18:00 CET

Rayo Vallecano - Sevilla
Spain, LaLiga @ 21:00 CET

Casa Pia - Boavista
Portugal, Liga Portugal @ 21:15

System Plays:

(0.6 Units) AEK Larnaca +0.25 (1.97)
(0.6 Units) Sevilla +0.5 (1.74)
(3.4 Units) Boavista +0.5 (1.78)
 
System Plays for Tuesday, 6 February 2024

Matches:

Motherwell - Ross County
Scotland, Premiership @ 20:45 CET

Cambridge Utd - Bolton
England, League One @ 20:45 CET

Exeter - Peterborough
England, League One @ 20:45 CET

System Plays:

(2.6 Units) Motherwell -0.25 (1.73)
(0.6 Units) Cambridge Utd +0.5 (1.81)
(0.6 Units) Exeter +0.75 (1.79)
 
Results and balance for the last 2 days

Monday

Fixed Stakes:

AEK Larnaca +0.25 (1.97): 2:2 / Won 1.455 Units (Half Stake)
Sevilla +0.5 (1.74): 2:1 / Won 2.22 Units
Boavista +0.5 (1.78): 0:0 / Won 2.34 Units

Day Balance:
Won 3 (2.5) / Won 6.015 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(0.6) AEK Larnaca +0.25 (1.97): 2:2 / Won 0.291 Units (Half Stake)
(0.6) Sevilla +0.5 (1.74): 2:1 / Won 0.444 Units
(3.4) Boavista +0.5 (1.78): 0:0 / Won 2.652 Units

Day Balance:
Won 3 (2.5) / Won 3.387 Units

Tuesday

Fixed Stakes:

Motherwell -0.25 (1.73): 5:0 / Won 2.19 Units
Cambridge Utd +0.5 (1.81): Void* / -
Exeter +0.75 (1.79): 2:1 / Won 2.37 Units

Day Balance:
Won 2 / Won 4.56 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(2.6) Motherwell -0.25 (1.73): 5:0 / Won 1.898 Units
(0.6) Cambridge Utd +0.5 (1.81): Void* / -
(0.6) Exeter +0.75 (1.79): 2:1 / Won 0.474 Units

Day Balance:
Won 2 / Won 2.372 Units
---------------------

* The match was abandoned/suspended (after 9 minutes of play, at 0:0) due to waterlogged pitch.
The rescheduled date for the full replay of this fixture has not been established at this time.
In conclusion all wagers on this match are void/cancelled.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

OVERALL BALANCE:

Fixed Stakes:
Won 33 (32.5) - Lost 20 (17) / Won 27.375 Units

Variable Stakes:
Won 33 (32.5) - Lost 20 (17) / Won 13.73 Units
 
System Plays for Wednesday, 7 February 2024

Matches:

Mainz - Union Berlin
Germany, Bundesliga @ 18:30 CET

Aston Villa - Chelsea
England, FA Cup @ 21:00 CET

Atletico Madrid - Athletic Bilbao
Spain, Copa del Rey @ 21:30 CET

System Plays:

(0.6 Units) Union Berlin +0.5 (1.85)
(0.6 Units) Aston Villa -0.25 (1.80)
(0.6 Units) Atletico Madrid -0.25 (1.72)
 
Note:

The balance on all "national cup" type matches to this date is:

Won 2 - Lost 5 (4.5)

This is a very bad balance compared to everything else played in my system.

I decided that from today to include plays on any national cup matches (no matter even if those are cup finals) only if other available matches for that day (which are OK with my handicapping criteria) all from some too obscure national competitions.
 
System Plays for Thursday, 8 February 2024

Matches:

Mezokovesd-Zsory - Paks
Hungary, OTP Bank Liga @ 16:00 CET

Kecskemeti TE - DVTK
Hungary, OTP Bank Liga @ 20:00 CET

Rosario Central - Ind. Rivadavia
Argentina, Copa de la Liga Profesional @ 23:30 CET

System Plays:

(0.6 Units) Paks to Win (1.90)
(1 Unit) Kecskemeti TE -0.25 (1.91)
(1.3 Units) Ind. Rivadavia +0.5 (1.71)
 
Results and balance for the last 2 days

Wednesday

Fixed Stakes:

Union Berlin +0.5 (1.85): 1:1 / Won 2.55 Units
Aston Villa -0.25 (1.80): 1:3 / Lost 3 Units
Atletico Madrid -0.25 (1.72): 0:1 / Lost 3 Units

Day Balance:
Won 1 - Lost 2 / Lost 3.45 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(0.6) Union Berlin +0.5 (1.85): 1:1 / Won 0.51 Units
(0.6) Aston Villa -0.25 (1.80): 1:3 / Lost 0.6 Units
(0.6) Atletico Madrid -0.25 (1.72): 0:1 / Lost 0.6 Units

Day Balance:
Won 1 - Lost 2 / Lost 0.69 Units

Thursday

Fixed Stakes:

Paks to Win (1.90): 1:0 / Won 2.70 Units
Kecskemeti TE -0.25 (1.91): 2:1 / Won 2.73 Units
Ind. Rivadavia +0.5 (1.71): 0:1 / Lost 3 Units

Day Balance:
Won 2 - Lost 1 / Won 2.43 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(0.6) Paks to Win (1.90): 1:0 / Won 0.54 Units
(1) Kecskemeti TE -0.25 (1.91): 2:1 / Won 0.91 Units
(1.3) Ind. Rivadavia +0.5 (1.71): 0:1 / Lost 1.3 Units

Day Balance:
Won 2 - Lost 1 / Won 0.15 Units

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

OVERALL BALANCE:

Fixed Stakes:
Won 36 (35.5) - Lost 23 (20) / Won 26.355 Units

Variable Stakes:
Won 36 (35.5) - Lost 23 (20) / Won 13.19 Units
 
System Plays for Friday, 9 February 2024

Matches:

Hamburger SV - Hannover
Germany, 2. Bundesliga @ 18:30 CET

Como - Brescia
Italy, Serie B @ 20:30 CET

Estrela - Portimonense
Portugal, Liga Portugal @ 21:15 CET

System Plays:

(0.6 Units) Hamburger SV to Win (1.71)
(2 Units) Como to Win (1.80)
(0.6 Units) Portimonense +0.75 (1.73)
 
System Plays for Saturday, 10 February 2024

Matches:

Tottenham - Brighton
England, Premier League @ 16:00 CET

AS Roma - Inter
Italy, Serie A @ 18:00 CET

Paris SG - Lille
France, Ligue 1 @ 21:00 CET

System Plays:

(1.3 Units) Brighton +1 (1.72)
(1.1 Units) Inter to Win (1.87)
(1.2 Units) Paris SG to Win (1.75)
 
Results and balance for the last 2 days

Friday

Fixed Stakes:

Hamburger SV to Win (1.71): 3:4 / Lost 3 Units
Como to Win (1.80): 1:0 / Won 2.40 Units
Portimonense +0.75 (1.73): 0:3 / Lost 3 Units

Day Balance:
Won 1 - Lost 2 / Lost 3.60 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(0.6) Hamburger SV to Win (1.71): 3:4 / Lost 0.6 Units
(2) Como to Win (1.80): 1:0 / Won 1.60 Units
(0.6) Portimonense +0.75 (1.73): 0:3 / Lost 0.6 Units

Day Balance:
Won 1 - Lost 2 / Won 0.40 Units

Saturday

Fixed Stakes:

Brighton +1 (1.72): 1:2 / Pushed
Inter to Win (1.87): 4:2 / Won 2.61 Units
(Paris SG to Win (1.75): 3:1 / Won 2.25 Units

Day Balance:
Won 2 - Pushed 1 / Won 4.86 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(1.3) Brighton +1 (1.72): 1:2 / Pushed
(1.1) Inter to Win (1.87): 4:2 / Won 0.957 Units
(1.2) Paris SG to Win (1.75): 3:1 / Won 0.90 Units

Day Balance:
Won 2 - Pushed 1 / Won 1.857 Units

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

OVERALL BALANCE:

Fixed Stakes:
Won 39 (38.5) - Lost 25 (22) - Pushed 1 / Won 27.615 Units

Variable Stakes:
Won 39 (38.5) - Lost 25 (22) - Pushed 1 / Won 15.447 Units
 
System Plays for Sunday, 11 February 2024

Matches:

Genoa - Atalanta
Italy, Serie A @ 18:00 CET

Sevilla - Atletico Madrid
Spain,, LaLiga @ 18:30 CET

AC Milan - Napoli
Italy, Serie A @ 20:45 CET

System Plays:

(0.6 Units) Atalanta -0.25 (1.75)
(1.2 Units) Atletico Madrid -0.25 (1.77)
(0.6 Units) AC Milan -0.25 (1.76)
 
System Plays for Monday, 12 February 2024

Matches:

Kayserispor - Besiktas
Turkey, Super Lig @ 18:00 CET

Crystal Palace - Chelsea
England, Premier League @ 21:00 CET

Almeria - Athletic Bilbao
Spain, LaLiga @ 21:00 CET

System Plays:

(0.6 Units) Besiktas -0.25 (1.73)
(0.6 Units) Chelsea to Win (1.75)
(1.8 Units) Athletic Bilbao to Win (1.83)
 
Results and balance for the last 2 days

Sunday

Fixed Stakes:

Atalanta -0.25 (1.75): 4:1 / Won 2.25 Units
Atletico Madrid -0.25 (1.77): 0:1 / Lost 3 Units
AC Milan -0.25 (1.76): 1:0 / Won 2.28 Units

Day Balance:
Won 2 - Lost 1 / Won 1.53 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(0.6) Atalanta -0.25 (1.75): 4:1 / Won 0.45 Units
(1.2) Atletico Madrid -0.25 (1.77): 0:1 / Lost 1.2 Units
(0.6) AC Milan -0.25 (1.76): 1:0 / Won 0.456 Units

Day Balance:
Won 2 - Lost 1 / Lost 0.294 Units

Monday

Fixed Stakes:

Besiktas -0.25 (1.73): 0:0 / Lost 1.5 Units (Half Stake)
Chelsea to Win (1.75): 3:1 / Won 2.25 Units
Athletic Bilbao to Win (1.83): 0:0 / Lost 3 Units

Day Balance:
Won 1 - Lost 2 (1.5) / Lost 2.25 Units
---------------------

Variable Stakes:

(0.6) Besiktas -0.25 (1.73): 0:0 / Lost 0.3 Units (Half Stake)
(0.6) Chelsea to Win (1.75): 3:1 / Won 0.45 Units
(1.8) Athletic Bilbao to Win (1.83): 0:0 / Lost 1.8 Units

Day Balance:
Won 1 - Lost 2 (1.5) / Lost 1.65 Units

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

OVERALL BALANCE:

Fixed Stakes:
Won 42 (41.5) - Lost 28 (24.5) - Pushed 1 / Won 26.895 Units

Variable Stakes:
Won 42 (41.5) - Lost 28 (24.5) - Pushed 1 / Won 13.503 Units
 
System Plays for Tuesday, 13 February 2024

Matches:

Norwich - Watford
England, Championship @ 20:45 CET

Bristol City - Southampton
England, Championship @ 21:00 CET

West Brom - Cardiff
England, Championship @ 21:00 CET

System Plays:

(2.5 Units) Norwich -0.25 (1.85)
(0.6 Units) Southampton to Win (1.81)
(1.3 Units) West Brom to Win (1.72)
 
I wanted to check if there is substantial difference in results between betting the home teams versus betting the away teams, because I had a feeling that home teams performed significantly better until now in my system.

Here is an interesting stat which resulted.
Up until this date (since 20 January), if I am excluding all wagers which were on "cup matches" we have:

Betting on all HOME teams:
Won 26 - Lost 12.5
Considering betting just on home teams = 100%, this is 67.53% winners.

Betting on all AWAY teams:
Won 15.5 - Lost 8.5
Considering betting just on away teams = 100%, this is 64.58% winners.

These percentages are pretty close.
So my conclusion is that does not worth concentrating on betting more home teams vs betting more away teams at this point.
 
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