# Picks based only on statistical data



## cgmbet (Oct 4, 2011)

If you like to bet based solely on statistical data I think you can  find here a very good starting point

All my proposals are based solely on statistical data and the results are pretty good so far.

Do not know if I chose topic well where to start, if not a moderator please move it.

My choices so far you can see here and can be verified.

http://www.cgmbet.com/tips.html

If I am allowed, starting today I will put here my choices

Good luck (even I don-t believe in luck but in skill)
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## cgmbet (Oct 4, 2011)

My selection for today


1. Vicenza vs Varese

Very weak start for both of teams with one goal / match for Vicenza and only 2 goals in total for guests.
I think is very balanced match probably with few goals but the draw odd is too low in my opinion.
On the other hand I think that the odd for home win is good enough to play. 2.75 means around 36% chances to win. The average for Italy B last seasons was around 44% (Is true that this season is around 39% so far but is only round 8) and taking into account that is balanced game I think that difference is big enough and worth to play.

Overall I think that today is a good opportunity for home team for their first victory.


Vicenza (-0.5) @ 2.75 4 units


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## cgmbet (Oct 5, 2011)

My selections for today 


1. Albinoleffe – Padova   

The percent of over 2.5 is around 52% this season so far much more than last years.
More, Albinoleffe and Padova scored together more than 4 goals/match and taking into account that Albinolefee has no the best defense and all their matches were  there are possible a lot of goals I think that the probability for over 2.5 is more than 57% as the odd 1.75 suggests.   

So in my opinion the odd for over 2.5 is good but I prefer to try 

Over 3 @ 2.29  4 units 


2. Crotone vs Bari 

The odds offered seems to be very balanced but taking into account that Bari not score only  with the leader (and in the first match of the season ) and had decent results so far since Crotone is not in the best period. They had decent result at home but against weak teams (I watched Vicenza last night and I can not imagine how Crotone did not manage to win against them and more to received 2 goals.
I go with Bari      
Bari (-0.5) @ 2.80 4 units


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